Poll Alert! (SurveyUSA-Civitas)

The Civitas Institute is out with a new poll, conducted by SurveyUSA, which also did a poll for WRAL last week. The results should be pretty similar. The WRAL poll was conducted from the 17th through the 19th of March, while the Civitas poll was conducted from the 19th to the 23rd. Civitas looked at the Supreme Court race, which we won’t cover here, and also the Republican primary, which we’ll take a look at now. It’s an interesting poll and people should take a look at it; there are some interesting findings. The link is here.

Republican primary
(The numbers in parentheses are the differences from the WRAL poll.)
Undecided – 38% (+15)
Tillis – 27% (-1)
Brannon – 13% (-2)
Harris – 9% (+3)
Grant – 5% (-6)
Snyder – 5% (+1)
Bradshaw – 2% (-2)
Alexander – 1% (-6)
Kryn – 0% (-3)

Notice the huge jump in undecided voters. The Civitas poll probably employed a different likely voter screen. Harris also does better here, but this is probably margin of error change. There are big drops in support for Grant and Alexander.

Tillis is taking 27% of the primary vote here. 62% of voters are decided. 27/62 = 43.5, so if undecided voters break down the same way as their decided counterparts, then Tillis will avoid a runoff. But it’s very close, too close for comfort for establishment Republicans. In the event of a runoff, Brannon looks like the most likely foe.

Notice that it appears that the Civitas poll had the names read in the order they will be on the ballot, with Tillis at the top. This did not cause any significant change, but polls who list the names in random order should probably be viewed more skeptically.

Favorable/Unfavorable (Republican primary voters
(First number is net favorability. Second number is difference in net favorability from the WRAL poll.)
Tillis 37/15 (+22) -1
Brannon 24/4 (+20) +4
Harris 18/4 (+14) No Change
Snyder 10/2 (+8) No Change
Grant 10/3 (+7) -4
Alexander 8/4 (+4) -4

Brannon’s support is 4 points higher, Grant’s and Alexander’s 4 points lower. Again, this is probably statistical noise. (Kryn’s favorability rating was not included, apparently because his name recognition was too low).

One thing I noticed – in the Civitas poll, females are 59% of the Republican primary electorate. That seems way too high.

Ideology: 48% of respondents reported themselves as ‘very conservative’ with 32% ‘somewhat conservative’ and only 16% ‘moderate’. That’s to be expected in the present day Republican Party. Interestingly, Tillis has the smallest lead with moderate voters, but again there’s a small sample size.

58% support the Tea Party. 28% do not, and 14% are not sure. 88% have lived in the state for more than 10 years. This could mean that recent migrants to the state skew Democratic, or are younger and less likely to vote in low turnout primaries.

72% say they are pro-life. 25% are pro-choice. That’s an amazing statistic, and why the GOP can’t get away with running a Todd Akin here. When it comes down to it, even a significant minority of Republicans are uncomfortable with prohibiting abortion. I’m surprised that more did not report themselves as undecided on this issue.

There is a consistent pattern emerging: Tillis is short of the 40% threshold, and it’s a 50/50 proposition on whether or not he can get there on May 6th. Should he fail to clear that 40% threshold, he will enter into a runoff with Greg Brannon. Mark Harris, however, is close on his heels, and at 9% does better here than in any recent poll. Harris has a chance to seize second place with a spirited television campaign.

Poll Alert! (PPP)

Poll link: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2014/PPP_Release_NC_311.pdf

Let’s be frank: PPP is a Democratic-leaning pollster, and they don’t like Thom Tillis. So take their results with a grain of salt. Personally, I’d like to see another pollster conduct a survey on the Republican primary, because I don’t buy these results for a second. Nonetheless, let’s take a step back and just accept these results as true.

Since last month, Hagan’s situation has improved slightly, but it’s still a very close race against all her opponents. The big news, however, is in the Republican primary, where Thom Tillis is now locked in a tie with Greg Brannon. PPP says Tillis’s comments about Obamacare and his gaffe on the minimum wage hurt him, and they use that to justify his drop in support. The problem, of course, is that nobody except the most energized conservative activists heard of Tillis’s Obamacare statement, and the minimum wage issue is more likely to harm him in the general than in the primary.

General election
(Numbers in parentheses indicate change in margin from last poll
45% Alexander, 43% Hagan (-5)
43% Snyder, 42% Hagan (N/A)
43% Bradshaw, 43% Hagan (N/A)
43% Brannon, 43% Hagan (-3)
43% Hagan, 43% Harris (-2)
43% Hagan, 42% Grant (-3)
43% Hagan, 41% Kryn (-2)
45% Hagan, 43% Tillis (-2)

All of Hagan’s Republican challengers lost ground from last poll. Are North Carolinians slowly forgetting their anger about the ACA? Perhaps.

There’s nothing wrong with these results. But take a look at who does worst against Hagan – Edward Kryn, who is not a serious candidate, and Thom Tillis, who trails Hagan by 2. Now look at Greg Brannon. He ties her. Does this mean Brannon is more ‘electable’ than Tillis? Of course not. If voters know anything about Brannon, it’s that he was found liable in a civil trial a month ago. That said, I don’t think Brannon actually polls better than Tillis in the general election at this point in time. Maybe last month, but not now. Of course, I have no evidence for this, other than a Rasmussen poll that had Brannon doing worse than Tillis, but it’s intuition, and usually my intuition is good (except for that post I made about Brannon’s campaign being over).

Republican field
Numbers in parentheses indicate change in support from last poll
Undecided – 36% (+2)
Tillis – 14% (-6)
Brannon – 14% (+1)
Grant – 11% (-2)
Alexander – 7% (-3)
Harris – 7% (-1)
Bradshaw – 6% (N/A)
Snyder – 4% (N/A)
Kryn – 1% (-1)

Tillis plummets in support, though instability is expected at this point in the primary. The number of undecideds is actually greater from last month. Every single candidate fell in support. Except, that is, for the guy who was found liable in a trial a couple of weeks ago. I’m not saying the results are inaccurate, but they’re definitely suspicious.

Favorable/Unfavorable (general election voters)
First number in parentheses – net favorability. Second number – change in support from last month)
Harris 11/16 (-5) +3
Grant 10/17 (-7) +4
Brannon 10/19 (-9) -2
Hagan 41/50 (-9) No change
Snyder 8/17 (-9) N/A
Alexander 8/19 (-11) No change
Kryn 6/17 (-11) +2
Bradshaw 7/19 (-12) N/A
Tillis 18/37 (-19) -5

This is a poll of general election voters. North Carolinians don’t like either of their options for Senate, even though they have quite a few of them. They dislike Mark Harris the least, who has a -5 favorability rating. Hagan is underwater at 41/50. Tillis is at -19. His favorability rating was already pretty bad, but it dropped 5 points from last month. I can buy that. There was the minimum wage snafu. What I don’t buy is Brannon’s numbers. Being found liable in a much-publicized civil trial should have cost him much more than 2 points.

Favorable/Unfavorable (primary election voters)
(First number: net favorability. Second number: change from last month.)
Harris 12/15 (-3) +5
Brannon 13/17 (-4) -2
Tillis 24/28 (-4) -2
Bradshaw 7/14 (-7) N/A
Snyder 7/15 (-8) N/A
Grant 8/18 (-10) No change
Alexander 6/17 (-11) No change
Kryn 4/17 (-13) +1

Nothing wrong with these results. Best-liked is Mark Harris, followed by Brannon and Tillis. PPP says Tillis’s Obamacare comments hurt him in the primary, but they didn’t hurt him much here. Why? Because nobody heard about Tillis’s Obamacare comments, except for the most engaged political junkies.

Conclusion: It’s hard to discern anything from a poll released by a questionable firm with a history of supporting Democratic candidates, who have many clients in North Carolina. It’s pretty clear that PPP wants Tillis to have a difficult primary. Conservatives should ask themselves why that is.

At this point, the most likely scenario is for a runoff between Tillis and Brannon. Obviously, there are a lot of people invested in making sure that doesn’t happen. This primary is going to be interesting.

Can Brannon Win?

First, for the primary: yes. A lot of things would have to go right for him, and a lot of things would have to go wrong for Tillis, but it could happen. Brannon has just the right profile for a Tea Party insurgent in today’s environment. What he doesn’t have, and may never get, is the money and the name recognition.

Brannon’s best chance of winning the nomination is by coming second in May, then going up against Tillis in a runoff and having the Tea Party coalesce around his candidacy. Team Tillis desperately wants to avoid getting into a runoff with Brannon. Best-case scenario for Tillis: clear the primary with over 40%. Second-best-case scenario: someone other than Brannon places second. Harris, Alexander et. al could probably be convinced to step aside for the good of the party, especially since Tillis is likely to fall just short of 40%. No way Brannon does that. If Brannon places second, it means war between the two competing factions of the Republican Party.

Right now, there’s a strong likelihood of that happening. I thought that Brannon would be wounded by the jury ruling, but I was wrong. For the primary, at least, it didn’t make so much as a chink in his armor. Mike Lee endorsed his campaign yesterday, and Rand Paul is headlining a fundraiser for him later. So yes, Greg Brannon can win the primary, even though Tillis, right now, doesn’t seem to be too worried and is instead looking ahead to the general.

Next post: Brannon can win the nomination, but can he win in the fall? For that, the answer is equally unequivocal.

Trends on Social Media: Ranking the Senate Candidates (March Edition)

Two months to go (until the primary).

Filing has officially ended. The candidates are official. And, just before filing closed, came two new entrants: perennial candidate Jim Snyder of Lexington, and Alex Bradshaw of Icard. That brings the total number of GOP candidates to eight, which is going to make it difficult for Tillis to avoid a runoff. Also, Dr. Greg Brannon’s campaign hit a road bump, with a jury finding him liable of misleading investors. Will that have affected his social media support within the last month?

The first number is Facebook ‘likes’, the second is Twitter followers. The third number is number of new followers since last month. The numbers come from the candidates’ respective campaign accounts. Onward to the rankings!

1. Dr. Greg Brannon (69,133 + 3,302 = 72,435) +4,786
2. Speaker Thom Tillis (52,205 + 8,379 = 60,584) +6,968
3. Sen. Kay Hagan (50,464 + 5,257 = 55,721) +2,857
4. Rev. Mark Harris (2,861 + 2,034 = 4,895) +1,116
5. Heather Grant (955 + 1,616 = 2,571) +416
6. Former Mayor Ted Alexander (1,107 + 748 = 1,855) +687
7. Dr. Edward Kryn (100 + 23 = 123) +26

No campaign accounts were found for Alex Bradshaw or Jim Snyder.

Once again, we find a Brannon/Tillis/Hagan tier, and an ‘everyone else’ tier, led by Rev. Mark Harris. In the month of February, Thom Tillis added the greatest number of new followers, but Brannon is still the social media king, and the jury ruling doesn’t look like it’s affected his appeal (a net loss in followers would have been a strong indication of that). Of the ‘big three’, Hagan added the least new followers. Is this because Tillis and Brannon are engaged in a competitive primary, or does Hagan need to step up her social media game?

The Momentumeter

The Momentumeter measures momentum by calculating percentage change in total followers from last month. According to the Momentumeter, the U.S. Senate candidate with the most momentum is …

***Former Mayor Ted Alexander +59%***

Rev. Mark Harris +30%
Dr. Edward Kryn +27%
Heather Grant +19%
Speaker Thom Tillis +13%
Dr. Greg Brannon +7%
Sen. Kay Hagan +5%

The Momentumeter says that the candidate with the most momentum, for the second month in a row, is former mayor of Shelby Ted Alexander! Of the ‘big three’, Tillis has the most momentum. Kay Hagan is at the bottom. She has a lot of supporters, but her enthusiasm from the base could be better.

Conclusion: If social media is any indication of support, then both Tillis and Hagan should be worried about Brannon. But will social media translate to actual votes, come election day? It’s tough to say. We do know that among the most engaged GOP primary voters, Brannon is doing well. This is good news for him, especially in the light of recent events. But Tillis is adding new followers at a higher clip. And no matter what, Republicans look to be more enthusiastic ahead of the 2014 midterms.

About That Edict …

After Greg Brannon was found liable for misleading investors, I felt certain that his campaign was finished. With such a scarlet letter, no respectable Tea Party leader or group would want to endorse him.

I was wrong.

Today came news that Senator Mike Lee is endorsing Brannon’s campaign. Lee is highly respected in the Tea Party and even among some establishment conservatives. With Lee’s endorsement, it is possible that other Tea Party groups will soon enter the fray.

In my post, I also stated that the jury decision would be unlikely to quell the enthusiasm of those already backing Brannon. That’s proven correct so far. Brannon hasn’t lost any support. If anything, the decision has galvanized their support. The Tea Party crowd sees the whole case against him as some kind of conspiracy, and if investors who trusted Brannon lost money, well, that was just the free market at work. The only effect the jury verdict has, therefore, has been to further harm Brannon’s prospects in the general, should he make it there.

So at this point, it’s still premature to say that Thom Tillis will be the nominee. So forget about my ‘edict’. In the future, I will try to be less rash. But honestly, I did not expect someone like Mike Lee to want to associate himself with Dr. Brannon in the aftermath of the trial.

In the meantime, I’m making a new prediction. It’s not an official ‘edict’ but here’s how I see the race playing out: Tillis will place first in the May 6th primary, but come short of the 40% hurdle. Brannon will place second. This means runoff time – Kay Hagan’s best chance at winning reelection.

Some people are still speculating who the “anti-Tillis” will be: Greg Brannon or Rev. Mark Harris. It’s time to end the speculation. The answer is clearly Greg Brannon. Harris’s supporters are not nearly as passionate, nor as vocal, as Brannon’s. In fact, I’m not even sure Harris has any supporters. Many thought Harris would play well with the large base of social conservatives here in North Carolina. But the contingent of voters who vote solely on issues of gay marriage and abortion is actually not as large as one might expect. Harris might be getting these voters if Brannon was a libertarian in the mold of, say, Michael Beitler, but Brannon has staked out positions on the right against abortion and gay marriage.

In addition, pastors don’t have much history of being elected to federal office. How many members of the clergy do you see running for office? Not many. I actually think Harris’s occupation might be a turn-off to many social conservatives. Even among this group, there’s still a desire to maintain a separation of church and state. A pastor who is running for office makes them squeamish.

Bottom line: There are only two Republicans running who have a chance of winning the nomination. One of them is Thom Tillis, the other one is the guy who was found liable in a civil case last month. And of those two, only one of them can win the general in November. Republicans, take your pick.

Thom Tillis: Republican Nominee

One of my favorite blogs is ElectionProjection.com, run by fellow North Carolinian ‘the Blogging Caesar’. In the past, the Caesar would make ‘edicts’ which were basically bold predictions. Inspired by this, I am going to make an edict of my own. Some may view the following prediction as anti-climactic. But here it is:

Thom Tillis will be the Republican nominee for U.S. Senate in North Carolina.

Tillis is the presumptive nominee because the only contender who could possibly have beaten him has been vanquished. The Brannon campaign will go on, yes, but he no longer has a chance to win the nomination. Integrity cuts across ideological lines, and Brannon’s is now seriously in question after this week’s verdict Regardless of whether or not Brannon actually misled investors, the sting of the jury verdict will sink his campaign. Brannon could win on appeal, but vindication will not come before the May primary. Without this vindication, Brannon cannot be the Republican nominee.

But how different things would have been had the jury gone the other way! Indeed, before the jury verdict, Dr. Brannon had a very plausible path to the Republican nomination – a fact never given credence by state or national media. At the very least, Brannon would have given Tillis a run for his money, and quite literally as he would have forced the Speaker into an expensive and bitter runoff. A Brannon/Tillis runoff would have significantly damaged the GOP’s chances of winning back the Senate seat.

Back in January, 2013, I wrote that Dr. Brannon is not to be underestimated. That pronouncement still holds. Believe it or not, a runoff between Tillis and Brannon is still within the realm of possibility. Brannon’s supporters are passionate and will not let a jury ruling upset the apple cart. He, along with Mark Harris and Heather Grant, will vie for second place in the runoff. But even though Brannon isn’t dead, he is wounded and will have to struggle to expand his support beyond conservative blog commentators on the Internet. Brannon probably won’t lose much support. But he’s unlikely to gain any either, and that’s why Thom Tillis is heavily favored to be the Republican nominee.

Jury: Brannon Misled Investors

Today started out to be a good one for Dr. Greg Brannon. He appeared on the Glenn Beck Show and got rave reviews from the liberty-minded, constitutional crowd. Then WRAL reported that Brannon had failed to pay his property taxes on time. But the biggest blow came with the news that a Wake County jury found him liable for misleading investors in a technology start-up. Brannon will be required to compensate the investors $250,000.

It’s unknown at this point how this will affect Brannon’s Senate bid, and the candidate himself says he will appeal the ruling. But it’s not going to help. The Tillis campaign must be very happy at this news. Until this point, Brannon was the most serious challenger to the House Speaker. This finding by the jury will be a millstone around his neck. More importantly, it means Tea Party groups on the sidelines might think twice about getting behind Brannon’s candidacy. Up until now, Brannon seemed like the Tea Party dream candidate. No more. He’ll always have this jury ruling. Ultimately, integrity cuts across ideological lines.

Of course, the nightmare scenario for the Republican establishment is if Brannon becomes the nominee in spite of these revelations. That’s not particularly likely to happen, but then again that’s true of most nightmares.

Poll Alert! (PPP)

PPP’s latest poll finds that not much has changed: Hagan is still tied or trailing her Republican challengers. Beyond that, it finds that Thom Tillis still hasn’t put much distance between himself and the rest of the Republican field. Let’s take a look, once again, at the numbers:

General election
(Numbers in parentheses indicates change in margin from last poll
45% Alexander, 38% Hagan (N/A)
43% Brannon, 40% Hagan (+1)
42% Harris, 40% Hagan (no change)
42% Tillis, 40% Hagan (+1)
41% Grant, 39% Hagan (+1)
40% Hagan, 40% Kryn (N/A)

The biggest surprise here is how well Ted Alexander does against Hagan. He leads her by 7 points. The next-closest challenger beats Hagan by only 3 points. What about Alexander, an unknown candidate, causes him to do so well compared to other unknowns in the field? I have no idea, however it’s worth noting that Alexander probably peels votes away from Tillis in the primary.

Beyond that, Hagan’s inability to crack 40% ought to be very worrisome to those supporting her candidacy. The ads running against her have taken a serious toll on her image, which is now completely inseparable from Obama and Obamacare.

Republican field
(Numbers in parentheses indicates change in support from last poll
Undecided – 34% (-10)
Tillis – 20% (+1)
Brannon – 13% (+2)
Grant – 13% (+2)
Alexander – 10% (N/A)
Harris – 8% (no change)
Kryn – 2% (N/A)

The numbers for the primary haven’t shifted much. More people are making up their minds, however, using the term loosely, with the number of undecideds going from 44% last month to 34% this month. Alexander is now in third place, ahead of Mark Harris, who has gotten a lot of attention from the media but has still not made an impression on Republican voters. Brannon and Grant are tied for second. What’s with Grant’s consistently good showing? My guess is that, as the only woman in the field, and with so many unknown candidates, voters are automatically gravitating toward her.

The GOP race still looks to be headed for a runoff. If the election were held today, Tillis would place first and would face a runoff against either Brannon or Grant.

Favorable/Unfavorable (general election voters)
(First number in parentheses is net favorability. Second number is change from last month)
Brannon 10/17 (-7) +2
Harris 10/18 (-8) -1
Hagan 41/50 (-9) +1
Alexander 8/19 (-11) N/A
Grant 8/19 (-11) -4
Kryn 6/19 (-13) N/A
Tillis 15/29 (-14) -1

With general election voters, Brannon has the ‘best’ favorability rating, though it’s still negative at -7. Brannon’s lead in this category is interesting, given the news of late. Tillis is at the bottom, with a -14 favorability rating, which could be an obstacle in a general election. Hagan’s approval rating is 41%, with 50% disapproving. She’s become much better known in the past couple months, but that’s to her detriment. Because of AFP’s ads, she has become known as Obamacare Lady, which is not what her campaign wants. 56% of voters have no opinion about Thom Tillis one way or the other.

Favorable/Unfavorable (primary election voters)
First number: net favorability. Second number: change from last month)
Brannon 15/17 (-2) +4
Tillis 21/24 (-3) -2
Harris 10/18 (-8) +2
Grant 7/17 (-10) +1
Alexander 7/18 (-11) N/A
Kryn 3/17 (-14) N/A

Republicans don’t like any of their candidates, but they dislike Brannon the least. His favorables are pretty much even. It’s the same story with Tillis. Voters really don’t know much about any of the others, which tends to result in a negative opinion by default. Brannon has improved 4 points in net favorability since last poll.

Conclusion
The GOP still has a potentially messy primary in store here. A runoff looks very likely, which means a delayed start to the general election against Hagan in the fall. This might not matter much, since AFP looks like they’re ready to pound Hagan on the airwaves until November.

If Republicans can nominate an electable candidate here, their chances of beating Hagan and taking back the U.S. Senate look very bright. Whoever the GOP nominates is likely to have problems of their own, but there isn’t a perfect candidate waiting in the wings. The next three months are going to be very interesting. Hagan and Democratic groups are getting ready to respond, and the primary is starting to heating up. As long as the GOP doesn’t nominate an unelectable candidate, North Carolina is going to be a major battle for control of the U.S. Senate in November.

Brannon’s First Ad

The campaign of Dr. Greg Brannon will soon be launching its first ad in the NC Senate race. In the ad, Brannon takes aim at both Speaker Thom Tillis and Senator Kay Hagan, while running as an unabashed Tea Party leader.

The ad will likely generate support from very conservative NC primary voters who haven’t yet heard of Dr. Brannon. It’s about as red meat as you can get, and ends with the candidate in front of a waving yellow “don’t tread on me” flag. There’s also a lot of information to absorb here, the Brannon campaign is telling you everything they want you to know about their candidate all in one ad.

While this will undoubtedly boost Brannon’s prospects in the primary, the Tea Party and figures like Cruz are still controversial (though the failure of the Obamacare rollout has mitigated that slightly). The middle could get uncomfortable, especially with the image of the Tea Party flag.

I sometimes wonder how Jesse Helms would do in a Senate race in North Carolina today if he was still alive and well. The best way to find out might be to nominate Dr. Brannon. There are those on the Right who insist that victory is assured if we nominate a “true conservative” who stands on principle and disregards the polls. A Brannon nomination could test that proposition.

Trends in Social Media: Ranking the Senate Candidates (February Edition)

Once again, I’m going to add up the Facebook and Twitter followers for each Senate candidate here in North Carolina, come up with a ‘score’ and see if we can spot any big changes. Can an analysis of social media spot new developments taking place below the surface? Perhaps.

Changes from last time: Bill Flynn dropped out of the race, and Edward Kryn got in. Since this is Mr. Kryn’s first full month in the race, we won’t be able to do a comparison from last month. Let’s do this, once again, the last before the filing period:

1. Dr. Greg Brannon (64,928 + 2,721 = 67,649 +1,164
2. Speaker Thom Tillis (47,978 + 5,638 = 53,616) +6,067
3. Sen. Kay Hagan (47,925 + 4,939 = 52,864 +3,920
4. Rev. Mark Harris (2,155 + 1,624 = 3,779 +761
5. Heather Grant (702 + 1,453 = 2,155) +173
6. Former Mayor Ted Alexander (825 + 343 = 1,168) +743
7. Dr. Edward Kryn (78 + 19 = 97) N/A

(First number is Facebook followers, second is Twitter folds, the part in bold is the ‘score’, and the last number represents change in that score from last month.)

Once again, we find from the rankings there are two separate tiers: there’s a Brannon/Tillis/Hagan tier and an ‘everyone else’ tier. Since last month, Tillis has moved into second place in social media follows, besting Kay Hagan. Tillis being on the air has probably helped in this regard. Tillis also added the most new followers. Again, being on TV helps.

It’s the Momentumeter! We’ll use it to calculate percentage change from last month, and see who has the most ‘momentum’! The candidate with the most momentum from last month is …

***Former Mayor Ted Alexander***

Rev. Mark Harris +25.22%
Speaker Thom Tillis +12.76%
Heather Grant +8.73%
Sen. Kay Hagan +8.00%
Dr. Greg Brannon +1.75%

Yes – it’s Ted Alexander with the most momentum! (The Momentumeter is clearly biased toward recent entrants.) For more established candidates, Rev. Mark Harris is the momentum leader.

But the most surprising thing in this month’s edition of the social media rankings is that Dr. Brannon’s momentum appears to have peaked. For months, Brannon added huge numbers of new followers, establishing a formidable social media presence. In the last PPP poll, Thom Tillis led in every area code for the Republican primary … but Brannon led on the Internet. Now, it appears that Dr. Brannon has peaked, or at the very least his momentum has slowed considerably. What happened? Brannon can take solace in that he’s still the social media king. But he’ll need to take to the airwaves if he wants to wear the crown.